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Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season/October
October The month has now started according to UTC. This is whilst the Atlantic continues to be really inactive, uninteresting, and boring! Must be wind shear and dry air across the basin! Since the Atlantic is being like this and I know this might be getting annoying, but I'll use a hashtag for your entertainment. #OMGATLANTICJUSTPRODUCEFAYALREADY --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:05, October 1, 2014 (UTC) : For the record, this season, with only 5 storms thus far, is at the slowest pace for an Atlantic season since 1986, which also had 5 storms at the end of September that year. According to the NHC's monthly tropical cyclone summary for September, the ACE value is only 43% of the 1981-2010 median. Not as terrible as last year ended up being, but still. The last time so few storms formed in September since the active era began was 1997, with Hurricane Erika being the only September storm that year. It's not impossible we could get 1 or two more storms in October/November this year, but with cold, dry air dominating much of the Atlantic, it'd take a miracle for us to get to at least 8 storms this year. Ryan1000 21:53, October 1, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Southwestern Caribbean AOI: Southwestern Caribbean We have something new down in the southwest Caribbean and it's a 10/20 AOI. I hope it becomes Fay but due to proximity to land it possibly won't become anything.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:10, October 8, 2014 (UTC) : Yeah this thing is too close to Central America to develop. It'll probably just move over land and die tomorrow. Ryan1000 01:05, October 8, 2014 (UTC) ::: Or...on second thought, it'll be moving into the EPac and develop there. Ryan1000 20:49, October 8, 2014 (UTC) ::: Now in the EPac and 20/50. Any more comments should go here --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:40, October 10, 2014 (UTC) 07L.FAY 99L.INVEST This is unusual, never seen this forum so dead. Anyway, 60% and expected become a subtropical storm.--Isaac829 00:37, October 10, 2014 (UTC) :That what happens when the Atlantic gets very inactive :P Anyways, this is an unusual storm, we could see a Subtropical Storm Fay from this. Subtropical storms in the Atlantic usually form very late and very early in the season instead of early October!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:40, October 10, 2014 (UTC) ::Now at 90%, looks like Fay is finally on its way. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:09, October 10, 2014 (UTC) Subtropical Depression Seven Just in from the NHC's Twitter, advisories will be initiated at 11. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:31, October 10, 2014 (UTC) : Yeah they said that on their website too. This'll probably become Fay, but don't expect it to become very strong as it heads north. I hope it becomes weak, that way my puns from before will be true. :D Ryan1000 14:37, October 10, 2014 (UTC) Subtropical Storm Fay It's now here. Sorry I haven't been on, usual busy-ness of life off of the wiki. Oh, and LOL Ryan XD I wasn't able to sign in because I pressed "enter" to put my sig down here, but I guess my computer thought "when he presses enter, that must mean he wants it published" (stupid computer) leeboy100My Talk! 21:27, October 10, 2014 (UTC) : Lol Ryan, I remember your "Fayl" and "Faylure" puns, which we can use if Fay fails. :D Anyways, we finally have Fay after waiting for a month! I expect it to peak in the strong TS category, and I hope it also becomes fully tropical. Hopefully it's not a "Fayl", I'm still a tad bit sick of Atlantic fails after last year's epic fail season that produced so much fails it completely got on our nerves. I'm just glad the Atlantic is producing stronger storms this year (expect for Dolly), and I'd like that streak to continue!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 22:58, October 10, 2014 (UTC) ::50 kts/1000 mbar now and expected to become fully tropical soon. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:54, October 11, 2014 (UTC) ::::Although Fay is the only named storm in ATL now, 90L behind it is the one that is more likely to be a threat to land, as it heads into the upper Lesser Antilles in a few days. Ryan1000 05:13, October 11, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fay Now tropical with winds of 70 mph.--Isaac829 16:05, October 11, 2014 (UTC) :Sorry Ryan, but given how close Fay is to hurricane strength (I wouldn't be surprised if it debuts as a hurricane this year, just like Arthur and Cristobal), I can't quite say it's fayling. :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 16:11, October 11, 2014 (UTC) :Come on Fay! Weaken so we can call you a fayl or a faylure :leeboy100My Talk! 17:55, October 11, 2014 (UTC) :::Oh well. Fay probably won't cause enough damage to Bermuda to be retired anyways, so...there's always 2020! Guess there's no faycepalms to be given this time though. Ryan1000 20:05, October 11, 2014 (UTC) ::::Hurricane watch and TS warning discontinued for Bermuda, but Fay is apparently very very close to hurricane status. From the latest NHC discussion: "The cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical, and microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is better than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed mid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a hurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support an initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is anticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to hurricane status." - Avila. Emphasis mine. Personally, if Fay won't be a faylure, I hope it becomes a hurricane. Oh, and an 82 mph wind gust was recorded in Bermuda a few hours ago. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:06, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::Looking at the NHC forecast track I wouldn't be surprised if Fay just peaks at 70 mph and fails to become a hurricane. It still seems to have a hurricane potential though since it's currently oh-so-close to reaching that status and it'll only have to strengthen 5 more mph to become a hurricane. C'mon Fay, become a hurricane, it's still possible for you! Looks like it's not the Fayl we all wanted it to be. If it's not upgraded to a hurricane before it dies out, there's a shot for it to be upgraded post-season.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 17:07, October 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Yeah given the force of the gusts on Bermuda and the strength of the flight-level winds at times (there was a maximum of 79 kts measured last night), I wouldn't be surprised if Fay pulls a Nate '11/Karen '07/Cindy '05/Gaston '04/Erika '03 and is upgraded in post-analysis, though it could also pull a Beryl '12 and remain a high-end TS (remember, recon found 80-kt flight-level winds in Beryl, but the storm was never upgraded to a hurricane). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:44, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I'll wait until the next advisory to make a header, but Fay is now a hurricane per ATCF: AL, 07, 2014101218, , BEST, 0, 343N, 619W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 25, 25, 1011, 240, 25, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FAY, D, 12, NEQ, 300, 240, 150, 180, Pretty impressive for an Atlantic storm that was originally forecast to peak at a measly 40 kts, eh? I guess Fay saw what Rachel pulled off and decided to take a stab at it :P --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:39, October 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::::: For the first time in History Fay is a hurricane yeahhhhh. Finally!!Allanjeffs 19:52, October 12, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Fay Now official per the NHC. Not expected to get any stronger than where it is now, but I'm still impressed that Fay made it this far. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:36, October 12, 2014 (UTC) Well, like it or not Fay is a hurricane, I hate we won't get to use the pun but I'm happy it's a 'cane leeboy100My Talk! 20:43, October 12, 2014 (UTC) : Fay, congratulations on becoming a hurricane! Like Leeboy, I hate that we don't get to use the pun, but I'm glad it became a 'cane. It seems like it became a hurricane last-minute, because it is predicted to become extratropical by tomorrow.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 21:14, October 12, 2014 (UTC) ::: Not bad, first Hurricane Fay ever but it's well away from land at its intensity, and will stay that way until it dies over colder waters. Ryan1000 22:15, October 12, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fay (2nd time) Shear's gotten to this thing big time. Weakened back down to a TS last night, now at 50 kts per ATCF: AL, 07, 2014101312, , BEST, 0, 342N, 534W, 50, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 80, 1008, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FAY, M, Probably will become extratropical later today. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 12:58, October 13, 2014 (UTC) :Looks like Fay dissipated before it could become extratropical. AL, 07, 2014101318, , BEST, 0, 339N, 509W, 45, 993, DB, 34, NEQ, 120, 150, 180, 180, 1008, 200, 90, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FAY, M, My guess is that the header for the next (and last) advisory will be "Remnants of Fay" instead of "Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay." --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:41, October 13, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Fay Yay, I win! Fay opened up into a trough. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:44, October 13, 2014 (UTC) This thing's already dead?leeboy100My Talk! 21:08, October 13, 2014 (UTC) :Yup! TCs interacting with cold fronts have a way of doing that sort of thing. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:16, October 13, 2014 (UTC) :Well, that was fast Dylan!. BTW my signature is going to be pink for the rest of the week, because breast cancer awareness is going around my town, and I have a relative who is a breast cancer survivor leeboy100My Talk! 21:22, October 13, 2014 (UTC) ::It's nice that you're standing up for breast cancer leeboy! Anyways, I might as well post my final farewell to Fay. Bye, Fay, it was nice tracking you, and you won't come again till 2020!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:26, October 14, 2014 (UTC) 08L.GONZALO Please see the individual archive on Gonzalo. 91L.INVEST AOI.Behind 90L This one is in the eastern Atlantic, 10% for 2 and 5 days. But don't expect it to become much, conditions for this one aren't favorable for development. Ryan1000 05:13, October 11, 2014 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Now invested, but the percent for development remains unchanged. Ryan1000 02:43, October 12, 2014 (UTC) : It just jumped off the TWO. What a fail of an invest.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 17:10, October 12, 2014 (UTC) : In the TWO again 10/20, and anticyclone is developing over the system so shear should lessen. Might become a tropical storm before all is done.Allanjeffs 18:43, October 13, 2014 (UTC) :: It's actually down to 10/10 but the NHC actually says upper-level winds will strengthen further, meaning this probably won't become anything.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:27, October 14, 2014 (UTC) ::: Now up to 10/'20', wait what? I thought conditions were becoming less favorable?--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:57, October 15, 2014 (UTC) ::: It's now off the TWO. Guess Hanna would have to wait.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 22:32, October 15, 2014 (UTC) 09L.HANNA AOI: Bay of Campeche 0/30 according to the latest TWO, a low pressure area is expected to form in the BOC and gradually develop over the next couple days. Potential candidate for Hanna (or should I dare say, Hannah Montana)?--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 15:13, October 19, 2014 (UTC) 93L.INVEST : The AOI has been upgraded to 50/60 and has probably been invested by now (Anyone want to check WUnderground for me? :)). Hanna is about to come during the next couple days. And it's also predicted to take an unusual track towards the Yucatan, I've never really seen an AOI take that type of track before. Usually BOC storms go westward towards Veracruz.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:23, October 21, 2014 (UTC) ::Yeah this was 93L when it got the 50%. The GFS and Euro are picturing something very dire from this one, they see it moving due east into the northwestern Caribbean, then intensifying into a powerful hurricane before heading north to hit Cuba or southern Florida. This is definitely one to watch out for. Ryan1000 19:31, October 21, 2014 (UTC) :::Now it's 50/50. Hopefully it won't be something devastating in the long run like the GFS and Euro are predicting! I guess this season's still not winding down yet, there's a shot we could see a retirement candidate from future Hanna if the models pan out.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 01:02, October 22, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Nine Here comes Hanna. 30 kts/1000 mbar currently, forecast to peak with winds of 45 kts before landfall on the west coast of the Yucatan (something you don't see every day) before dissipating over the northwestern Caribbean Sea (a fate which I imagine is very, very rare for late October). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:16, October 22, 2014 (UTC) : It all depends on how hard the Yucatan tears up this thing, and the trough that's pulling it. If the trough fully outruns the storm as the GFS and Euro were suggesting, this thing could stall or move very slowly in the northwestern Caribbean, which isn't good news as that gives it lots of time to restrengthen before hitting Cuba or southern Florida. The forecast for this to dissipate is only preliminary and lots of things could change before then, so this is definitely one to keep our eyes on. Ryan1000 10:20, October 22, 2014 (UTC) ::Down to 25 kts and could already be dead... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:00, October 23, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine Easy come, easy go. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:20, October 23, 2014 (UTC) : Wow, it's already dead? I really thought this would be Hanna. ಠ_ಠ --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:55, October 23, 2014 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Not just yet Dylan, it's been reactivated and is at 10%. If the front outpaces this and it stalls in the western Caribbean, like the GFS and Euro showed before, this might be able to regenerate and cause some trouble. It's down, but it's not out. Ryan1000 19:43, October 23, 2014 (UTC) : It's now 10/20. According to the TWO, "redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur", so it might take a while before it regenerates. Like Ryan said above, this could cause some trouble in the long run so areas like Cuba and maybe Florida might have to look out. However, at most, I would say it might be a strong TS/minimal hurricane, and I hope it won't be an epic failure TS storm (one that only peaks at 40/45 mph and affects some land at most, the only landmasses I see this invest affecting are Cuba and Florida). If it affects Florida at near peak strength however, I would say it won't be an epic fail. Cuba has only a small population in the invest's path IMO. I'd want a season without any epic failure TS storms happening this year, because last year had way too much of those. So far, this Atlantic season was awesome. Most of the systems became hurricanes with the exception of Dolly and the 2 TD's (TD Two and TD 9) and this season is totally 100x better than last year!!! But still, there's less systems than last year, but that's because last year had a lot of pathetic fail storms with only 2 minimal hurricanes. This year, it's quality over quantity, unlike last year, which was the complete opposite. The Atlantic is really doing good this year and I don't want an epic fail to break the streak of hurricanes! (with the exception of Dolly and the TDs of course) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:22, October 24, 2014 (UTC) ::I actually do not think ex-TD 9 will regenerate at all. The final NHC discussion noted it was entering a region of dry air and shear, which should inhibit any further development. However, Steve, I do agree with your opinion - like 1980 and 1998, we have seen few storms yet so many hurricanes. If we do not get another storm for the rest of the year, 2014 will be the first AHS since 1983 to have all but one storm from the year become a hurricane. AndrewTalk To Me 02:08, October 25, 2014 (UTC) :::It actually still has a tiny shot but I don't think it'll redevelop anymore. Still 10/20.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 19:57, October 25, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Hanna Well this was unexpected, one moment it's at 10/10 and forecast to move into Central America without regenerating, and the next, *boom* we have a 35 kt/1005 mbar tropical storm on our hands. I'm actually quite peeved that this got named. It's right on the coast of Nicaragua, so it won't have any time to strengthen and will only serve to a.) cause flooding problems and b.) drastically lower the ACE/storm. For the record, this thing had a lower pressure as a 25-kt depression than it currently does as a named storm. :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:49, October 27, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Hanna Now down to a depression, forecast to die soon. Yeah Dylan, I too find it rather upsetting to see a piss-weak storm like this just steal a name off the list, but whether you like it or not...you'll just have to deal with it. Regarding flooding, I don't expect it'll be too severe, that area has gotten a lot more prepared since past storms like Fifi '74, and Hanna's only a small and weak TD. Impacts, if any, will most likely be on the scale of, say Katrina '99. Ryan1000 23:53, October 27, 2014 (UTC) :Honestly it's not even that this stole a name off the list. It's more that a.) Gonzalo is no longer the epic finale that it could've been, and b.) I want us to stop before the 'I' name because I.) we haven't done so since 1997 and II.) we accomplished more than enough with 7 (now 8) storms. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:03, October 28, 2014 (UTC) ::Wow, this is really an epic fail. It just stole and hijacked a name off the list and I didn't expect that! It also really surprised me to see this AOI that was once in the low-chance-of-developing threshold become this epic name-waster. Really Hanna? Why you have to be such an epic fail? I really don't think impacts will be that severe at all! And Dylan, I would have also liked to see Gonzalo be the epic finale, but this extreme name-waste fail just had to show up. There's still a slight shot we could still see an epic finale though, if a storm named Isaias rapidly strengthens to be a Paloma (2008) type storm in the Caribbean. That occurrence is very unlikely, but I'm not saying it's impossible. Well Hanna, you are such an extreme fail, why did you have to steal this cute name off the naming list? Maybe we should call it "Hannah Montana" because of its fail status! Haha, Hannah Montana, you are such an epic fail and disgrace to TCs! :D --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 01:29, October 28, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Hanna Our combo-breaker has died. Steve, I wouldn't call Hanna an epic fail, since it did affect land, but yeah, all it really has to its name is its interesting meteorological history. It took a west-to-east path through the southern BOC, died, then reformed to hit northern Nicaragua while going in the opposite direction. Not exactly a path one expects to see every season. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:53, October 28, 2014 (UTC) Yeah this has been the weirdest track in a long time. Btw all this energy start from ts Trudy, and for now it has finally end. Tbh the cold front brought more rain to me than Hanna ever did.Allanjeffs 17:50, October 29, 2014 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Wow...this thing has to be one of the most stubborn storms I've seen in this part of the Atlantic, let alone at this time of year. Reactivated at 20%. Ryan1000 20:18, October 28, 2014 (UTC) : And...finally gone. Ryan1000 10:27, October 30, 2014 (UTC) 92L.INVEST AOI: Far Northeast Atlantic Something very unusual is located right here, it's something that could acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of the week. Grace (2009) 2.0? Here comes Hanna (or Isaias if the above becomes something first)!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 15:13, October 19, 2014 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Invested.--Isaac829 16:46, October 19, 2014 (UTC) : Now it's 10/20. It could still become something subtropical in the next few days and I'm rooting for a subtropical storm "Isaias" (if the below AOI is named "Hanna" first!).--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:25, October 21, 2014 (UTC) :: 10/10. I guess Mother Nature won't pull a big surprise with this, since it's only got limited time until upper-level winds strike Wednesday night. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 01:03, October 22, 2014 (UTC) :::0/0. After getting two systems we thought had named storm potential, we get nothing! TD 9 failed to become named and this, well...failed.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:58, October 23, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Near Ex-TD9 Near 0/0. It's very close to ex-TD 9 and upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development of this one.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:58, October 23, 2014 (UTC) : Off the TWO. Epic FAIL! --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:23, October 24, 2014 (UTC) 95L.INVEST 95L.INVEST Already invested according to the WUnderground site, but it is very unlikely that this will become anything. Conditions are only marginally conductive and upper-level winds will strike later on. Hopefully it won't be an epic fail Isaias. BTW, it's 10/20 and located east of the Lesser Antilles.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 01:34, October 28, 2014 (UTC) : 30/40, this could be Isaias before all is said and done. Ryan1000 20:18, October 28, 2014 (UTC) ::: And now near 0%. It's caught up in some very strong shear that should prevent it from developing. Ryan1000 20:00, October 30, 2014 (UTC) :::: It jumped off the TWO. Oh well, it didn't become anything.--Steve820 |Happy 04:37, October 31, 2014 (UTC)